Grim and grimmer

Can we send this year back? It seems to be faulty …

Broken Strings

It’s been a tough start to the year.

Let’s start on the work front.

Bruce Daisley points out the horror of the jobs market in his Newsletter, as 53% of UK workers say that they are looking for a new job in 2026. Firstly, that’s a lot of people dissatisfied with where they are right now, and it’s probably because of the culture. Secondly, the jobs market is so irretrievably broken that a lot of them are going to find their job search an emotionally draining and ultimately unrewarding experience.

My last foray into the jobs market was after I was made redundant in 1999. Even then, it felt like it was pretty broken, as it began to go online and automated screening started to be used. Now it’s being hit by AI slop, as both sides of the market have effectively increased their ‘fire power’. Applicants can apply for hundreds of jobs with little additional effort, which means that hitting a 1000 applications is not uncommon. Would be employers are being flooded with applications and are using AI screening to ‘manage’ the load. It’s not just AI filters screening AI-generated applications, it’s AI interviews, interminable selections processes and all sorts of other horrors inflicted on applicants (as I wrote about in a recent edition of this missive).

These two effects are netting off, so employers are still struggling to find good quality applicants and employees are unable to find new opportunities. The outcome is unchanged, only we are setting fire to more of the planet in the process of going nowhere.

So a lot of people are going to become even more disillusioned, more people are going to stay in posts they are at best indifferent about, businesses will stagnate and productivity will continue to stay where it is.

Still, I guess it shows there are some applications for AI. Not exactly useful ones but, hey, it’s a start, isn’t it?

Don’t Leave Me This Way

Daisley also highlights a study by the Guardian that shows how UK businesses have rolled back their commitments to LGBT rights. This appears to be following the lead of the Trump government in the USA, which has taken direct action to discourage support for LGBT communities by business.

So why would UK businesses be influenced by the position of the US government? Well, quite a few of those businesses are owned by US corporations, or US investors, or are reliant on working with US companies and selling to US customers.

The growth in US ownership of UK business has been surprisingly high in recent years and yet is hardly remarked on, despite the fact that around two million people now work for US companies and tens of billions of dollars per year are transferred across the Atlantic to American owners. (For more detail, listen to this interview with Angus Heaton, author of ‘Vassal State - How America Runs Britain’). So the simple answer for many is that they are simply doing their master’s bidding.

The second answer is the dominating effect of the US on UK businesses and the media. Business discourse in the UK is mostly an echo of the US, and we tend to follow where they lead.

And thirdly, the weaponisation of LGBT as being ‘woke’ ideology has made it a hot potato for many companies, and now that support for LGBT communities may have consequences, their commitment has been shown to be merely expedient.

This is a reflection of the prevailing winds in the world of work right now, and they are harsh. I often decide not to write about a topic or a story because it is from the US and, I remind myself, the UK is different, but I think we now have to accept that difference in narrowing. Whilst we do have protections against the worst behaviours, we have to acknowledge exactly what it is many companies and CEOs would like to do if they were given free rein, and that the US government is actively pushing for the existing constraints to be removed.

And that they are using their considerable power in a ruthless fashion.

Burning Down The House

In this we see a few threads that are coming to predominate.

• A worsening job market, even for those in previously well-paid roles.

• Dysfunctional systems.

• A lack of autonomy (in the UK) due to foreign ownership, especially American.

• The ability of AI to make things worse without any compensating benefits.

• An excessive reliance on the US.

• An increasingly hostile attitude from some governments and employees, notably in the US.

I would add to this the enormous concentration that we have seen across most industries, where several are now oligarchies or effective monopolies. Many of these are almost hidden from view, such as the eyewear market, where the wide variety of brands available hides the dominance of one supplier.

I’ve hesitated to hit the panic button or succumb to the easy response that ‘Oh my god, the whole world’s going to shit and all the people in charge are utter bastards’ but I think we have reached the point where we have to say

OH MY GOD, THE WHOLE WORLD’S GOING TO SHIT AND ALL THE PEOPLE IN CHARGE ARE UTTER BASTARDS!!!!

Well, that makes me feel better!

Until I wonder what to do next.

The sad conclusion that I have reached is that the most sensible assumption for people employed by a large organisation to hold is that the people in charge are utter bastards who will screw them over in a heartbeat and to act accordingly. Because if they are not already like that now, it only needs a takeover to make them so.

It seems increasingly unlikely you will escape that fate in your career because of the finance-driven consolidation that seems unstoppable. Not least because it’s the only solution they have to producing share price growth in a dysfunctional economic system (I mean, apart from invading countries and stealing stuff and we don’t do that colonial shit anymore, do we? Do we?? WHAT????!!!! You’re fucking kidding me!!!!).

The good news is that there are still a lot of smaller organisations that can chart a different path. Indeed, that’s where the majority of people work. And in smaller organisations, you can have a lot more influence to effect change and build a better way of working.

Damn it, that hope just won’t die, will it?

Are Friends Electric?

In further cheery news, it seems that all those stories about corporations laying off staff because of AI are exactly that - stories. Whilst it is undoubtedly true that employment in the US has been falling (the last quarter had the lowest level of job creation ever outside of a recession) and that the layoffs are real, it’s not down to AI.

According to research analysis by Oxford Economics, “firms don’t appear to be replacing workers with AI on a significant scale,” and they suggest instead that companies may be using the technology as a cover for routine headcount reductions. (More detail in this Fortune article “AI layoffs are looking more and more like corporate fiction that’s masking a darker reality, Oxford Economics suggests”)

Why? Because they think it’s good for investor relationships. Not only are they dressing up bad news, like earlier over-hiring, into a good news story, they are telling their investors what they want to hear (job reductions are well-received on Wall Street).

When asked about the supposed link between AI and layoffs, Oxford Research’s Cappelli urged people to look closely at announcements. “The headline is, ‘It’s because of AI,’ but if you read what they actually say, they say, ‘We expect that AI will cover this work.’ Hadn’t done it. They’re just hoping. And they’re saying it because that’s what they think investors want to hear.”

The reduction in entry level posts that is also evident seems to be because companies have learnt to replace people with process, enabling ‘jobless expansion’. High levels of graduate unemployment are also likely to be a factor due to a cyclical glut of graduates.

So, despite what the media spin is, it’s all down to cyclical factors in the economy. Good old supply and demand.

The robots aren’t coming to take over everyone’s jobs, so you don’t need to worry about that.

However, when the markets realise they are not going to get a return on the stratospheric levels of gambling, er sorry, investment in AI, there’s going to be one hell of an adjustment. Now, that is something to worry about.

Creep

All this seems somewhat trivial given what’s happened geopolitically this year, almost entirely initiated by Trump. The return to ‘Spheres of Influence’, the trashing of international law, the kidnapping of a leader of a sovereign state (yes, I know he’s an utter toe-rag but that doesn’t justify it), the stated intent to interfere in European liberal democracies, the ongoing tariff wars, the threats of invasion against a NATO ally and the consequent destruction of NATO itself - jeez, it’s only been a fortnight!!

All of this is incredibly destabilising. If we are ushering a new age of ‘might is right’, where does that leave us to determine our own fate? The rules-based order has underpinned an unparalleled period of stability and prosperity, not only in the advanced economies but around the world. Businesses have thrived with the certainty that it has brought, trade has blossomed and living standards have been lifted. But now?

This all undercuts the foundations on which we have built our societies, our economies, our lives and our careers. I’m not going to predict what the future holds but it’s not looking great.

It’s all terrible but the worst of it is that Elon Musk has enabled the creation and distribution of Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM). The richest man in the world could solve major world problems with his own wealth if he wished (I mean, like child poverty, for example) but has instead decided to promote depravity and to seek to normalise the sickest of behaviours. And what power do we have to stop him? Because there are no moral constraints anymore and any legal measures will be met with indifference or active hostility.

This is where we are now. It’s another AI story. It’s another story about moral collapse in business. It’s another story about excessive market concentration. It’s another story about exploitation and abuse. It’s another story about dehumanisation, lack of empathy and callous indifference. It’s another story about how we are impacted by the whims of a damaged man-baby who wasn’t loved enough by his father.

Only this one sickens me to my stomach. I don’t know what we do to fight back but we can’t just stand by and accept this.

Welcome to 2026. Like I said, it’s a been a tough start.

Things can only get better, right?

(I’m not just whistling in the dark, am I? Am I?)