All Predictions Are Wrong

At least we can certain of something

Hot Stuff

Want my hot take on the future of work in 2023? Well , sorry to disappoint but I think it’s too early to say what will happen. We haven’t yet got to terms with what’s happened since COVID at any depth.

An example is the piece by Will Hutton that appeared in The Observer, which claimed in the sub-head ‘WFH is fast losing its allure for many’. He constructs his argument from TikTok memes, increased traffic on public transport and cycling in London and other ‘straws in the wind’. Even whilst he admits it’s a nuanced picture, he opines that the young want to work where other people are and his ‘own guess is the evolving norm will be a three- to four-day, workplace-based working week, with some flexible hours added on, unless the government decides to impose common standards for us all, the privileged sectors (i.e. knowledge workers) taking the lead.’

It’s a very backward-looking perspective, seeing the future as some version of the past, different but familiar. However, I think it is possible that we have seen a one-time shift in how we work, a disconnect, and the future will be quite different to the past.

The consequences of this are enormous and, for some, rather frightening. Hutton mentions the inequality of opportunity between knowledge workers and others, those who service the offices and the daily influx of employees and we know the impacts will go far beyond this, to the very structure of city economies and the property industry. Undoubtedly, these are real challenges but they cannot be wished away and they also bring opportunities.

Hutton points to the low percentage of jobs offering hybrid working as a sign it is not taking such a hold. I contrast this with Chris Herd’s comments on how rapidly major organisations are accepting hybrid/remote working as a fact (and an opportunity) and the observation from LinkedIN that although hybrid/remote posts remain a minority of posting they attract the majority of views from job searchers.

And there is the problem. For every ‘fact’ presented there is an alternative explanation or another ‘fact’ that indicates the opposite. We just don’t have enough solid data to tell what’s happening now, let alone to indicate what might happen in the future.

However, I do agree with Hutton’s conclusion, even it does seem to contradict some of his preceding argument. He says “The future will be neither the Gradgrind of Musk, nor the confines of the front room. Rather, it will be an opportunity to reclaim work not as an act of alienation or exploitation but as something integral to our lives.” Or, as Chris Herd puts it ‘It’s not about the future of work, it’s about the future of living’.

Nowhere Man

In this period of flux, we’ve been fixated by the surface issues, primarily the simple (and false) dichotomy of office versus Work from Home. It’s a debate about where work happens, which I see as simply a hygiene factor. The real issue is about HOW we work and that’s where the opportunities really lie. It will be a game changer.

Progressive work practices have been around for a while, sometime through intention and sometimes by stealth. I would summarise these as:

• Self-managing autonomous teams, highly networked within a corporate eco-system, supported by powerful application and communication platforms.

• High trust, transparent, safe environment.

• Asynchronous working, flexible and autonomous schedules, distributed teams.

These practices are now being widely considered as organisations need to resolve the tension caused by hybrid working and the post-COVID ‘synchronous working over virtual platforms’ compromise. I see it as a natural progression, one that many multi-national companies are well along the path of. They were already working in distributed teams across multiple time zones and were better placed to cope with the dramatic shift caused by lockdown. They were still office-based them, through habit and practice rather than necessity. Now they are going all in on being fully-remote capable, whilst re-defining the role of the office within that.

New cadences of work have emerged that are now apparent in the mainstream. Teams have long periods of independent, focused working interspersed with short, intense and consciously-designed spells of in-person interaction to foster relationships, co-ordinate, collaborate and to learn from each other and together. There will be periods, like the beginning and ends of projects, where regular close contact will require greater communication and possibly co-location. Systems and facilities will be organised around these cadences, releasing resources and broadening the options available.

This is where opportunities for better use of resources lie but, more importantly, greater effectiveness and productivity to be realised. This is the real ‘big story’ of the future of work, in my view.

This shift is already happening but it will take some years to work it’s way through the mainstream. Those who hold out for a return to the past are doomed, and even if they eventually change tack, the delay could be fatal. That’s why I expect some major casualties. The aftershocks of the past couple of years will rumble on for a decade or more.

Waterloo

Of course, companies can insist people return to the office, or impose some sort of ‘fixed-hybrid’ schedule, and some are. However, this has consequences that were not apparent before COVID. People now know there are alternatives and they are pushing back on dictats.

It will adversely impact talent retention, recruitment, wellbeing, culture and expose deeper issues around the emotional and spiritual needs of employees (I wrote a LinkedIn post on this last week).

Add into that that 50% of GenZ globally want to be entrepreneurs and recent research that a large percentage of 18 year olds in the UK have no intention of ever applying for a job and this really doesn’t look like a sustainable position.

The old model is broken and it can’t be patched up with a grudgingly-given couple of days work-from-home. People are voting with their feet.

In The Crowd

Back to Hutton and I do agree that some younger workers do want to be working in an environment with others. They also want a high level of socialisation, they want to enjoy the bright lights of the city. Getting  away from home, the work-hard/play-hard vibe, is a rite-of-passage for many.

I’m just not sure that’s going to be a corporate office. They will want other options. Lots of them.

These options are not going to be in towers in the CBD, or low-level blocks in the landscaped surrounds of a Business Park near to the motorway.

They are going to be near to where they live (15-minute city anyone?). Their choices will be influenced by environmentalism, localism, community. Political choices may also impact it i.e. Labour’s plan to support 300 growth centres around the UK. It will no longer be dictated by business.

This is a social change as much as a business one. Let’s make sure we sieze upon it and make it a beneficial one

Late Again

Well, I’ve never posted as late as this in the week but, hey, boundaries are there to be flexed every now and then, aren’t they? Back in sync for next weekend. Probably.

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